By Richard Tribou
Orlando Sentinel
(Orlando Sentinel) — The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Sara formed in the Caribbean on Thursday and long-term forecast models show it could enter the Gulf of Mexico and turn toward Florida’s Gulf Coast.
As of the NHC’s 1 p.m. EST advisory, Sara was located about 205 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras and 50 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border moving west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
The storm became the 18th named system of the 2024 hurricane season. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 70 miles.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal east to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and the Bay Islands of Honduras while a tropical storm watch is in place from the Honduras/Nicaragua border south to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
“The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend,” said NHC hurricane specialist Larry Kelly. “Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over water.”
The NHC said 10 to 20 inches while some areas would get 30 inches of rain over northern Honduras. Up to 15 inches could also fall across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
The NHC only forecasts out five days with its projected path and that has it venturing over Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula and dropping back to a tropical depression and entering the Gulf of Mexico.
“It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, during the middle portion of next week,” Kelly said. “Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.”
Long-term forecast models show it getting sucked back to the east once in the Gulf of Mexico.
The interaction with land, though, could mean it doesn’t gather enough strength to grow into a hurricane, but models still show it potentially making a Florida landfall.
“A ridge aloft across Florida will gradually shift east early next week, allowing this system to lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico into Tuesday/Tuesday night,” said National Weather Service Melbourne lead meteorologist Derrick Weitlich.
He notes the models runs as of Thursday morning show a weaker system in the Gulf of Mexico.
“However, there remains some uncertainty on exact track, and how much land interaction will occur, which could lead to overall intensitydifferences after it emerges into the Gulf,” he said. “It is still too early to say what impacts, if any, may result across east central Florida from this system toward the middle of next week.”
If it does turn and strike Florida, it could become the fourth named storm to hit the state’s Gulf Coast this hurricane season following hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 11 of hurricanes among the 18 named storms, five of which grew into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or stronger. The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
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