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(NOTE: This news release was reissued on June 12, 2024, to correct an error in the Consumer Price Index
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) paragraph of the news release. The release incorrectly
stated that the 1-month percent change decreased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. The CPI-W
increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted
basis, after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the
last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
More than offsetting a decline in gasoline, the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4 percent for the
fourth consecutive month. The index for food increased 0.1 percent in May. The food away from home index
rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index was unchanged. The energy index fell 2.0
percent over the month, led by a 3.6-percent decrease in the gasoline index.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May, after rising 0.3 percent the
preceding month. Indexes which increased in May include shelter, medical care, used cars and trucks, and
education. The indexes for airline fares, new vehicles, communication, recreation, and apparel were
among those that decreased over the month.
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The all items index rose 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending May, a smaller increase than the
3.4-percent increase for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.4
percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending May. The
food index increased 2.1 percent over the last year.
Food
The food index rose 0.1 percent in May after being unchanged in April. The index for food at home was
unchanged in May. Two of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased over the month, two
were unchanged, and the remaining two had price advances. The index for dairy and related products
decreased 0.5 percent in May, led by a 1.3-percent decline in the index for milk. The nonalcoholic
beverages index declined 0.3 percent over the month. The index for other food at home and the index for
fruits and vegetables were both unchanged in May.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 0.2 percent in May, after decreasing 0.7 percent
in April. The index for cereals and bakery products also increased 0.2 percent over the month.
The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent in May, after rising 0.3 percent in the previous two
months. The index for full service meals rose 0.4 percent, and the index for limited service meals
increased 0.2 percent over the month.
The food at home index rose 1.0 percent over the last 12 months. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and
eggs rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for other food at home increased 1.0 percent.
Over the same period, the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 1.3 percent, and the fruits and vegetables
index increased 0.6 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.7 percent in the last year.
In comparison, the dairy and related products index fell 1.0 percent over the year.
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The index for food away from home rose 4.0 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals
rose 4.5 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full service meals rose 3.5 percent over the
same period.
Energy
The energy index fell 2.0 percent in May, after rising 1.1 percent in April. The gasoline index decreased
3.6 percent in May. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 0.5 percent in May.) The natural
gas index decreased 0.8 percent over the month, and the fuel oil index decreased 0.4 percent. The index
for electricity was unchanged in May.
The energy index increased 3.7 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index rose 2.2 percent, and
the electricity index increased 5.9 percent over this 12-month span. The index for natural gas increased
0.2 percent over the last 12 months and the index for fuel oil rose 3.6 percent over the same period.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May. The shelter index increased 0.4
percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and
energy. The index for rent rose 0.4 percent over the month, as did the index for owners’ equivalent rent.
The lodging away from home index decreased 0.1 percent in May, after falling 0.2 percent in April.
The medical care index rose 0.5 percent in May after rising 0.4 percent in April. The index for
prescription drugs rose 2.1 percent over the month, and the index for hospital services increased 0.5
percent. The physicians’ services index was unchanged in May.
The used cars and trucks index rose 0.6 percent in May, following a 1.4-percent decrease in April. The
index for education increased 0.4 percent over the month.
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The index for airline fares fell 3.6 percent in May, following a 0.8-percent decrease in April. Over the
month, the new vehicles index fell 0.5 percent, the communication index decreased 0.3 percent, and the
recreation index declined 0.2 percent. The indexes for apparel, household furnishings and operations,
motor vehicle insurance, and personal care also declined in May.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.4 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index
increased 5.4 percent over the last year, accounting for over two thirds of the total 12-month increase
in the all items less food and energy index. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year
include motor vehicle insurance (+20.3 percent), medical care (+3.1 percent), recreation (+1.3 percent),
and personal care (+2.9 percent).
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.3 percent over the last 12 months
to an index level of 314.069 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.2 percent prior to
seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.3 percent over
the last 12 months to an index level of 308.163 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1
percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 3.2 percent over the last
12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please
note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
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The Consumer Price Index for June 2024 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, July 11, 2024,
at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
Technical Note
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services.
The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban
wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents over 90 percent of the total
U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas,
including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as
urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people
living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those in
institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is
measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the
Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U). The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage
Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U
definition that meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household’s income must come from
clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household’s earners must have been employed for
at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months. The CPI-W population represents approximately 30
percent of the total U.S. population and is a subset of the CPI-U population.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’
services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are
collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and
approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling
stations, and other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated with the
purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained
every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every
month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods
and services are obtained by personal visit, telephone call, web, or app collection by the Bureau’s
trained representatives.
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In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using
weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are
also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and
population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in
the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since
the base period. For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are
considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to three
subsequent quarterly revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the CPI-U and the CPI-W,
the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals
An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively,
that relationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and
services rising from $100 to $107.
Sampling Error in the CPI
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample
of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates
of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U.
These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing.
For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S.
all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using
the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these
estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices. For
example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident that
the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the
latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error,
see www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.
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Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than
changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation
to its base period, while percent changes are not.
Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) program produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal
adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise the
previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available at
www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2024.xlsx. For more information on data
revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment
Methodological Changes at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.
How to Use Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
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For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred
since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same
magnitude every year-such as price movements resulting from weather events, production cycles, model
changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for
the time of year.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay.
Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract
agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before
adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in
escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually for five years.
Intervention Analysis
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment (IASA) for some CPI
series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of
price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by
such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors.
The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied
to the unadjusted data.
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For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009 return
to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier data during
seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion of the time series
data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to seasonal adjustment.
Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this “prior adjusted” data. These seasonal
factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in the data. The last step is for motor
fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.
For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2024, BLS adjusted 46 series using intervention
analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels and vehicles.
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes
Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to
revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate
new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years of data.
Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final and not subject
to revision. For January 2024, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2019 to
2023 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted using the Census
X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2023 will be applied to data for
2024 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2024 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted
by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and are
therefore not available in advance.
Determining Seasonal Status
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Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria.
Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status from “not
seasonally adjusted” to “seasonally adjusted”, or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S.
city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not
seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent
series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed.
For 2024, 36 of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted.
Contact Information
For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information and
Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm
If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access
telecommunications relay services.
Notes from APS Radio:
Economists and the government make a distinction between core inflation and inflation in general.
In particular, core inflation excludes prices of food and fuel, as those are deemed “too volatile” to be included in the calculus of officially declared rates of inflation.
As well, at various times the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues corrections and emendments in relation to previously released reports.
Reportedly because of what was being called a “pandemic”, a number of the world’s central banks embarked on massive programs of monetary expansion, starting in late February and early March of 2020.
For its part, between the early part of March of 2020 to over a year later, the US Federal Reserve added over $4 trillion to its holdings, by purchasing billions of dollars’ worth of Treasury bonds and corporate bonds each month during that period.
As well, at that time it kept interest rates rather low.
Other central banks, including the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, followed similar policies.
In addition, during that period many countries engaged in lockdowns; many small and medium-sized businesses and enterprises were shuttered by way of orders issued by public health officials, politicians and various administrators.
One of the direct causes of those shutdowns was the development of shortages.
According to a number of economists, the combination of shortages of various goods and services and massive programs of “quantitative easing” led to substantially higher rates of inflation.
In consequence of shuttered economies and higher rates of inflation in the first world, less developed countries suffered greatly, due, in part, to shortages of supplies and due to lowered demand.
For some time, in its articles about China, The Wall Street Journal has pointed to “covid” related lockdowns as being one of the major causes of China’s downturn in its economy.
In the US, by October of 2020, over 100,000 businesses had been shuttered by way of lockdowns
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