By Anthony Man
South Florida Sun Sentinel gender gap in poll bulletin news
(South Florida Sun Sentinel) — The contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is tied, a national Florida Atlantic University poll reported Tuesday, just over a week since she became the de facto Democratic nominee for president.
The poll found Harris has 48% to Trump’s 46% among likely voters.
The result is within the survey’s margin of error, making the results a statistical tie.
Among a slightly larger pool of all voters, not just those seen as likely to vote, the poll finds Harris and Trump tied at 46%.
The campaign is still in flux. Harris’ campaign began on July 21, immediately after President Joe Biden said he would end his reelection campaign.
Since then, in Florida and across the country, Democrats have reported enthusiastic support for their new candidate as Republicans have switched gears from opposing Biden to opposing Harris.
“While voters may be responding to the prospect of a new candidate in these results,” Luzmarina Garcia, an FAU political scientist said in a statement, “they are also not sure what the Harris campaign messaging is, but the lead-up to the election will clarify that picture.”
gender gap in poll bulletin news
Demographic breakdowns:
American voters quickly assumed their partisan positions. Among Democratic likely voters surveyed, Harris has support of 82%. Among Republicans, Trump has support of 87%. Independent likely voters are closely divided, with 45% for Harris and 43% for Trump.
There is a gender gap. Among women, Harris is at 50% and Trump at 43%. Among men, Harris has 45% and Trump is at 49%.
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Democrats have touted Harris’ appeal to younger voters. The Florida Democratic Party put out an email blast Tuesday morning that proclaimed, “The youth vote will decide the election.”
That doesn’t show up in the FAU poll. Among likely voters younger than 50, Harris is at 41% to 49% for Trump. Among likely voters 50 and older, Harris is at 52% and Trump is at 44%.
A week ago, an FAU national poll found 49% for Trump, the Republican nominee, to 44% for Harris, among likely voters. It’s not a direct comparison, since the poll released on July 23 was conducted immediately after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention with questioning halted immediately after Biden dropped out. So the matchup was hypothetical, without people actually seeing the rollout of her campaign.
gender gap in poll bulletin news
When likely voters were given the additional choice the the new poll of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., he gets 8% in a three-way matchup.
With Kennedy in a hypothetical matchup, Harris is at 44% and Trump at 43%.
Fine print
The poll of 997 U.S. registered voters was conducted July 26 to July 27 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.
The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
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gender gap in poll bulletin news